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Sources for the Statistics
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Data has been complied from a variety of sources to estimate the significance of each phase of the hiring process in the selection of people who will become successful, competent, and productive employees.

0.00 for a Flip of a Coin
0.14 for an Interview Only
0.26 after adding Background Checks
0.38 after adding Personality Testing
0.54 after adding Abilities Testing
0.66 after adding Interest Testing
0.75 after adding Job Match Testing

Additional Sources for the Statistics

Sender: Management Education and Development Discussion (MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU)
From: Pearl Hilliard (philliard@dpsm.usc.edu)
Subject: Cognitive Flexibility in Ill-Structured Problem
To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU

Kim, the structured manner of your selection process is vital to obtaining reasonably predictive results from interviews. I agree that the interviews in the medical study mentioned must have been very unsystematic and arbitrary. However, the predictive validities you quote seem low. I believe Hunter & Hunter's study is old - about 1984?

There is a more recent review: Schmidt, Fl. L., & Hunter, J. E. (1998). The validity and utility of selection methods in personnel psychology: Practical and theoretical implications of 85 years of research findings. Psychological Bulletin, 124, 262-274. The validities of various personnel selection procedures in predicting overall job performance are calculated. Some of them are:

0.00 for a flip of a coin
0.18 for Job Experience (years)
0.38 for Unstructured Interviews
0.41 for Integrity Tests
0.51 for General Mental Ability Tests
0.51 for Structured Interviews
0.54 for Work Sample Tests

A meta-analysis [Ones, D. S., Viswesvaran, C., & Schmidt, F. L. (1993). Comprehensive meta-analysis of integrity test validities: Findings and implications for personnel selection and theories of job performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 78, 679-703.] concludes that supervisory ratings have a predictive validity of: 0.41.

Pearl Hilliard
HR Manager DPS,
USC philliard@dpsm.usc.edu

"What cannot be measured cannot be managed" (Anonymous)

"The 0.14 coefficient you are reporting is likely from Hunter & Hunter '84, which suffered from various methodological problems. More recently, research has demonstrated that interviews can be among the best predictors of performance. The following are criterion-related validity coefficients for employment interviews that were published in the professional literature: Pulakos & Schmitt (1995) 0.52; Campion, Campion, and Hudson (1994) 0.56; Roth & J. Campion (1992) 0.41;Campion, Pursell, and Brown. (1988) 0.56."

Anthony Adorno
Human Resource Group
Bloomington, IL
AdornoHRG@aol.com
(630) 307-0189

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